A new Addiction
Natural Gas in Disguise
Russia’s unprovoked and unjustified aggression against Ukraine and its use of natural gas as a political weapon has had a devastating impact on energy markets and, in turn, on energy-intensive sectors like fertilizers. After Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022, the price of natural gas in the EU increased dramatically, and Russia’s decision to suspend gas deliveries to several EU Member States heightened concerns over energy security.
The Versailles Declaration agreed in March 2022, committed the EU to phasing out its dependence on Russian fossil fuels as soon as possible.
The share of Russia’s pipeline gas in EU imports dropped from over 40% in 2021 to about 8% in 2023. Currently, for pipeline gas and LNG combined, Russia provides less than 15% of total EU gas imports.
Although Europe has found new sources of gas to replace Russian supplies, it is now deepening its dependency on Russian nitrogen fertilizers – essentially gas in solid form. Since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, the EU’s food system has developed a dangerous reliance on Russian fertilizer imports. Total imports of finished nitrogen fertilizers have increased since the 2021/2022 season, with urea fertilizers showing a significant rise during this period.
Russian Urea share of EU imports
Source: Eurostat
EU farmers’ dependence on Russian fertilizers is growing
In the agricultural season ending in June 2023, EU imports of urea from Russia doubled compared to two years earlier. Russian exports now account for around a third of the EU’s total urea imports. European farmers are becoming increasingly reliant on fertilizers that fail to meet high production standards aimed at curbing carbon emissions and promoting environmentally friendly alternatives.
As shown in Graph 1, imports of urea from Russia between 2020/21 and 2022/23 doubled, reaching 1,643 kt. Imports continued to rise, amounting to 1,776 kt in 2023/24, a 117% increase compared to 2020/21.
Increase in Russian urea imports into the EU
Source: Eurostat